picture: israeliran.net

This article will try to answer following questions: (1) would Israel attack Iran to stop its nuclear program and (2) what implications would it bring, Israel-Iran wide-scale conventional conflict, regionally and globally.
The likelihood of Israeli attack to halt or even just delay Iranian nuclear weapons program is frequently portrayed from two level of analysis, international system and, now being more frequent, decision making process in Israel.
Analyzing the issue at the level of analysis of international system, we would consider both Israel and Iran as two rational states seeking to ensure their own security by exploiting any mean to maximize their power. After all, security of one is threat to another. When one particular state increases its military capabilities, for example, the increasing would then be considered as threat to other states since the capabilities can be used anytime to attack other states. The states feeling threaten are then motivated to increase their own military capabilities. This vicious cycle is what scholars of International Relations call as security dilemma. To put it in the case, Iranian nuclear weapons program which will considerably increase its power and security would be seen as threat to other states, including Israel. The case is even worse with Israel and Iran are seeing each other as enemy –as President Ahmadinejad once said that Israel must be wiped off the map.
As a rational actor seeking to ensure its own security, thus Israel has more than enough reasons to halt Iranian nuclear weapons program before it’s completed. In fact, it is an experience that any state has learned from that state arming itself with nuclear weapons is never been a good idea. Nucleared-Iran, Israel believes, would be destabilizing factors of regional and international politics. Remember North Korea which now frequently bluffing with its nuclear weapons anytime it has domestic needs to be fulfilled, name it food, oil etc. In other words, there should not be another North Korea.
Other camp of analysts frequently links the likelihood of Israeli attack to Iran with the dynamic of the circle of decision making process within Israel itself. This analysis argues that the likelihood of such attack is a function of political calculations among Israeli leaders notably between right-wing, apocalyptic Prime Minister Ehud Barak and rational Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
Wide-scale conventional conflict in Middle East has never been in anyone interest. The implications it would bring is too grave to imagine. Given its considerable volume of oil production and the fact that it’s located near a major line of oil transportation namely Hormuz Strait, a conflict involving Iran would rocket global oil price, not a preferable option for any country for sure.
Given the above analysis, we come to conclusion that (1) it’s unlikely for Israel to initiate a wide-scale conflict with Iran. Nevertheless, Israel’s desire to halt Iranian nuclear weapon program is unquestionable. The very best we can expect probably is another kind of covert, limited, special operations by Israeli military and intelligence to neutralize Iran nuclear facilities. And we know Israel is very good in such operations –remember the big name of Mossad.
But after all the complicated, seems-to-be-never-ending analysis at the levels of decision making process in Israel as well as international system, one thing to be not forgotten once and for all is that ‘Israel is not a normal state’. It’s a state which existence is still questioned by number of parties, from non-governmental, ideologically driven actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah to state with considerable military capabilities such as Iran itself. It’s a state living along the matter of survival. And when you’re in the matter of survival, you would take any possible options on the table for not being vanished.

Writer: Muhammad Arif

ISAFIS held another Short International Studies Basic Course (SISBAC) on Thursday, 29^th March with Mien R. Uno Foundation. This SISBAC took place at Mien R. Uno Foundation with ‘Micro economy Potency and Young Entrepreneurs Enhancement’ as discussion topic.

Mien R. Uno itself is a foundation that focuses on education and youth development. The objective of this foundation is to embody independent society through the strengthening of education for young generation and the increasing number of young entrepreneurs. This objective is attained by giving chance to young generation to get a useful education for their future and facilitating beginner entrepreneurs through training, mentoring, and funding.

The discussion on this SISBAC was presented by Mr. Fajar Dewantara Suntara from Mien R. Uno Foundation with “Enhancement of Micro economy and Young Entrepreneurs’ Potency to Create Economy Development in Indonesia” as the title of the presentation.

First, we tried to answer a question about economy development condition in Indonesia, whether it has proceeded or not. Mr. Fajar said, if the question is like that, the answer would absolutely be: ‘Yes, it has been proceeding’, but the more important question to note is: ‘is today development of our country’s economy worth?’

There are many obstacles faced by our country due to economy development. We can divide it into some categories; they are socio-cultural aspect, nature, technology, domestic politics, demography, and environment aspect. In order to improve our economy condition, entrepreneurs have significant role. Directly, the presence of entrepreneurs will open new employment opportunities for many people and help increasing economic growth. Based on the data that Mr. Fajar showed, private sectors participations in infrastructure is equal to 50 percent and it enhances economic growth of 7.1—7.6 percent. Moreover, manufacture industries nowadays have potency to arise as much as 5.1 percent. This absolutely will also help increasing Indonesia economic growth.

Small and Medium Entreprises (SMEs) also hold significant role in order to enhance Indonesia economic growth. SMEs help in providing goods and services, recruiting labors, and also increasing standards of living.  SMEs also contribute 50.6 percent for National Gross Domestic Product.

Then, the big question is: Why don’t you become a young entrepreneur? Why not? Entrepreneurship itself, as stated by Sandiaga Uno, is an attitude that will become real in actions. Some people are afraid of failure, but we have to remember that the important thing is experience. At the end, experience will build your entrepreneurial spirit. The first thing to consider is our passion, when our passion fits well with available potencies, chance of business success will become bigger.

Last words from Mr. Fajar before the presentation finished: to be a young entrepreneur, we have to start building our entrepreneurial spirit, know ourselves, explore our own potency and passion, prepare our skills, and start setting our priority scale.

Visit http://mruf.org/ to get better understanding of Mien R. Uno foundation or follow their twitter at @mrufoundation. Let’s help people and build our country by being young entrepreneurs, young generations!***(Annisa Sudibyo)

picture: kidworldcitizen.org

Media can also sometimes be used as a tool for GNS to reach certain goal or interest. Market also plays a role in the usage of media, for instance, monocle magazine which can be read by people all over the world regardless states’ border; this is one of the powers of media. The moment international society is able to read and gain access to the same information regardless of border and nationality is when GNS appears. GNS on its nature can be either institutionalized or not institutionalized; it all depends on its specific needs and objectives.In the world where media empire rules, the growth of Global Network Society (GNS) is inevitable. GNS is considered as a part of Global Civil Society (GCS), in which GCS is an arena outside of the government and market where interactions happen between all actors in the society. GCS is a social space that is interconnected and is made out of thousands of self-directing non-governmental institutions. GNS exists when the GCSes are linked to each other. GNS is mostly related by the media and vice versa; there is an avoidable dialectical correlation between the two which can support each other. Therefore, it is safe to say that GNS is about the openness of accessibility characterized by the existence of communication network, which relies on technology.

Despite of the fact that GNS focuses on society, the power of the state does not dissolve. An easiest example would be South Korean’s K-Pop. K-Pop does not target the state, not it gives any impact to the governance, but instead K-Pop is able to influence the identity of society. However, it is true that GNS to some extent has the capability to limit the options of decision can be taken by the state by utilizing the media. GNS is often identified as soft power that can be used in order to gain people’s attention as well as influence; this is why GNS often affects state policy as the “supervisor” on particular issues.

The concept of GNS is conceded to be something abstract that cannot be grasped physically; it is a form of space that can be defined. The emerging of GNS cannot be separated with the process of globalization. There are various societies’ stances on globalization; supporters are those who wholeheartedly agree with globalization, reformers are those who see globalization as potential to bring benefit, but in the same time wanting to change, modify, and shape the globalization to make it more “civilized”, rejectionists are those who reject the idea of globalization entirely, want to turn it back, and instead wanting to return to the nation-state, and alternatives or pragmatists are people and group who do not necessarily support nor reject the process of globalization and choose more to be act independent out of the state and international institutions for the sake of living the way of life without interference.

In accordance to the emerging of GNS, ISAFIS will act as an institution that activates mutual understanding and not only promoting normative values. In order to improve for the better ISAFIS, we will need to cooperate with various organizations and actors, especially with those who have similar vision with ISAFIS. It is also imperative that we have more experts’ point of view on points that we are concerned on. The improvement of ISAFIS’s role can also be done through being a reformer; one of the ways is by participating in more international events.

[1] This essay is summarized from ISAFIS Biweekly Discussion I 3 March 2012 by Egalita Irfan, staff of Substance, Division of Research and Development with the help from other staffs of RnD. Some arguments in this essay may not be precisely same with what the speakers said in the discussion. Further confirmation is applicable.

picture: realclearworld.com

The American decline is not anyway a new topic of debate. The debate is between they who argue that US’ position as hegemony is being bothered by the rise of other actors (e.g. China, “the rise of the rest”) and they who insist against that argument. However, regardless how the debate goes, that there is something changes in American power is an undoubted fact. What is being change? What is the composition of American power would look like? These are the questions that we are going to try to answer in ISAFIS Biweekly Discussion I.

Most of the times when we talk about power, we dichotomize the concept into two; hard power and soft power. The first concept captures any mean of states to achieve their goals through coercive instrument and approaches while the latter captures can be defined as the ability to shape the preferences of the others.[2] Soft power in other words is the ability to attract, and attraction often leads to acquiescence. Soft power takes form of trust, legitimacy, reputation, values, norms, policies and institutions. In real world, soft power exercised through trade deals, foreign aid, diplomacy and persuasion, political and cultural influences, etc.

The last two decades, at the very least, witness the declining of American hard power relative to other particular states.  US is still the biggest economy in the world and it possesses the mightiest military power among all the countries on the globe. Nevertheless, the progressive rise of China’s economy and military power spreads the awareness that American dominance in the terms of hard, material power would not be there forever. China, and also other emerging economies like India, are narrowing the gap with US.

In fact, what amusing is that US’ market capitalism economic system that it has long been championed is better implemented by its closest rival, China. ‘We are all state capitalist now’ as Professor Niall Ferguson said. Who is going to be the winner in this contest equals to who is going to have a balance between the economic institutions that generate wealth and the political institutions that regulate and redistribute it. For now, it looks like that US is behind China.

Now that the declining of American hard, material power is no longer open for question, we move to the second forms of power; soft power. Is US still the leader on exercising soft power? While conventional wisdom says yes, unfortunately we are seeing that it is not the case anymore. Using some indicators derived from various forms of soft power we will see that US is no longer the champion of soft power. 2008 financial crisis shows us how fragile the capitalistic economic system US had been echoed for a long time. At the same time, Doha Round has collapsed before it could create a new mechanism of global trade to replace the ruthless one. Desperately trying to find the way out, US moves to build form of institutions such as G-20 where it turns out find its influence is decreasing even more relative to the emerging powers in the club. US finds itself in a new world where it no longer possesses unlimited space to move.

Two (stupid) wars that US waged in the last decade in Afghanistan and Iraq also contribute to wreck US’ reputation as global leader as well as stabilizer.

However, there is still some part of US culture and values that the world now even more embrace. Arab Springs show us how the value of freedom and democracy is still desired.

Now, with most of its forms of power have been obsolete, we can have an image of American power in the future. Due to the government budget cut for the next 10-20 years and the recovery of financial crisis that is still taking place, it is quiet reasonable to predict that American hard, material power is going to be even more declining relative to other emerging powers such as China. In exercising its soft, leadership power, US will be also forced to try to adopt with new international environment where it has to accommodate various kind of interests. It is can be carried out through accommodating foreign policies mainly in international institutions.

However, with it still dominating world-scale media, US still has a chance to revitalize its global image and position. Indeed, media plays a big role in portraying and shaping particular country’s image. The failure of US to use this chance is intolerable for the sake of its desire to continue dominating the world.

[1] This essay is summarized from ISAFIS Biweekly Discussion I 3 March 2012 by Muhammad Arif, Director of Division of Research and Development with the help from other staffs of RnD. Some arguments in this essay may not be precisely same with what the speakers said in the discussion. Further confirmation is applicable.

[2] Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics, (New York: PublicAffairs, 2004), p. 5.

Short International Studies Basic Course (SISBAC) is one of ISAFIS’ routine activities where members of ISAFIS do a brief visit to join a discussion related to important matters with many different organizations, such as embassy, institutions, company, or national and international NGO in Jakarta. The theme of discussion itself is determined by ISAFIS members through weekly meetings or suggestion from one of the members and mostly talks about international issue related to the organizations we visit. Ideally, SISBAC is held once every two weeks.

On Friday, 27th January, SISBAC was held with Youth Desk – Indonesian National Commission for United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The discussion was presented by Edwin Leo Mokodompit (Coordinator of UNESCO Youth Desk Indonesia) and Jasmine Sagita (Vice Coordinator of UNESCO Youth Desk Indonesia). The discussion started with explanation about roles and objectives of the organization and then continued by question and answer session.

UNESCO has unique competencies in education, sciences, culture, communication and information; and it was the first UN System agency to define and develop specific programs for youth. UNESCO has a National Commission in every country and it usually cooperates with the ministry in charge of education in each country. Mr. Leo explained that every two years, the representatives of the States Members of UNESCO meet in General Conference. The UNESCO General Conference discusses UNESCO’s programs and which will be focused on for the next two years. The decisions resulted from General Conference does not have to wait for approval from United Nation; it is based on majority voting. Each country has one vote, irrespective of its size or the extent of its contribution to the budget. One of the parts of UNESCO General Conference is Youth Forum, it is attended by youth representatives from the member states.

Then, what is Youth Desk – Indonesian National Commission for UNESCO? Based on Ms. Jasmine’s explanation, Indonesian Commission of UNESCO is a form that bridges UNESCO’s programs to the Member States. The role of UNESCO Youth Desk is bringing forward youth’s voice to bring a change together in every way possible, youth as drivers of change. Youth have the legitimate demand to be heard, to express themselves, moreover it is imperative that youth valuable contribution to society be recognized. Youth also have an important role in the present, their involvement is a necessity for improving the quality of human resources in achieving a sustainable development. Therefore, Youth should be given opportunity and guidance to prove their ability in creating beneficial and lasting social change. UNESCO comes to facilitate and provide further space enable youth to effectively participate by making follow up on their recommendations and to put them in action. “The youth’s spirit is important, but what is urgently needed is also youth’s actions” she said.

UNESCO Youth Desk empowers youth actions by their programs in many fields, such as education, science, culture, communication and intersectoral program. Few of UNESCO Youth Desk’s programs are internship programs, campaign, talk show, traditional music concert and youth forum. UNESCO Youth Desk also participates globally. For instance, UNESCO built a HOPE program to help the people in Haiti after earthquake.

After the presenters had finished their explanation, we entered question and answer session. First question was about the concern that many Indonesian youth are not interested in bringing changes and how UNESCO responses it. The presenters answered that, actually, there is a proof that Indonesian youth’s interest in important matters are increasing every year. Although the graphic shows that the interest is increasing, the distribution is not really equal in other cities in Indonesia, especially in east region. It can be caused by little facilities, or easily provoked. The fact is, only 10% of total youth in Indonesia who involve on change actions. This can be changed by spreading information to the wide network, not only in big cities.

Other question said that even though there are many events empowering change for youth, the participants are the same person over and over again. The presenters answered that it is usually caused by lack of information or lack of facilities such as money. It can be solved by expanding and connecting network to get information. Nowadays, we can easily get information via internet, for example. In this case, the role of UNESCO Youth Desk is more on providing sponsorship networks for youth who want to join international forums.

Next, last question stated that one of the problems in youth organizations is many of them are not “down to earth” and work by themselves eventhough some have similar/same mission.  The presenters answered that, actually, every organization has their own concern and it does not mean they are not “down to earth”. The challenge is power of collaboration. For instance, if a youth organization has a similar program as other youth organization, they can collaborate with each other. Basically, youth or young people want to make history, to be ‘exist’ and be known, and are usually self-centered. The key is actually to respect the process, cooperate with other and have much patience in waiting for results.

You can visit UNESCO Youth Desk website on unescoyouthdesk.org  or follow @UNESCOYouthDesk to get to know more about Youth Desk – Indonesian National Commision for UNESCO.

Written by Annisa Pratiwi Sudibyo

Coming Soon!

	Jl. Banyumas No.2, Menteng
	Jakarta
	Indonesia
	10310

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Indonesia International Week

Indonesia International Week (Indonesia IW) is a student exchange program under the International Week Coordinator Organization (IWCO), with its headquarters in Barcelona, Spain. IWCO sets the standard IW operating guidelines for all organizing countries such as Japan, China, Switzerland, Belgium, Holland, Turkey, Italy, Spain, and other European countries.In Indonesia, IW is organized by the Indonesian Student Association for International Studies (ISAFIS). International Week is distinctly unique compared to other similar programs as it is a short term student exchange program encompassing discussion and seminar which focus on spesific issues.

IW as ISAFIS’ annual program hopes to become a vehicle to help build friendlier relationships with countries around the world and voice to the world Indonesia’s existence and development ,also its diverse our traditional culture

International Week’s participants are students from top universities in their respective countries and also members from influential organizations (International Student Association/ISA). The majority are either graduates in Management/Business or still studying for their master’s degree. Participants are quite competent in business as they have undergone professional work experience in their own countries. The large investment needed to pay for air fare to Indonesia return indicates each participant’s strong interest in Indonesia’s business development and culture.

Indonesia IW participants continued to increase in numbers. Through IWCO, we have wide access not only to Western European countries but also Central, Southern, Northern, and Eastern Europe.

Jakarta Model United Nations (JMUN) 2012 is the first-ever international Model United Nations in Indonesia which will be held by ISAFIS (Indonesian Student Assosiation for International Studies). MUN (Model United Nations) is a simulation of United Nations conference that is often held abroad and attracts local and foreign students worldwide. This year, after a success of JMUN 2011, committees of JMUN 2012 will put the best effort to make this event successful, by inviting international students to participate in this event. JMUN offers a unique opportunity to experience the challenges of international negotiation and diplomacy. The participants (hereinafter referred to as ‘delegates’), will play a role as the representative of member countries of United Nations. Throughout the conference, delegates will gain insight into the workings of the United Nations by actively participating in the resolution of important global issues.

MUN is not a new thing for students abroad. In other countries, there are a lot of MUNs that have been held annually, such as Harvard National Model United Nations (HNMUN) in United States, Emirates Model United Nations (EmiMUN) in Dubai, etc. JMUN is the first MUN in Indonesia which engages students from some prominent universities as its committees, such as University of Indonesia, Pelita Harapan University, Bakrie University, and others. This year, there will be more than 200 delegates worldwide who will be positioned into four committees: United Nations-General Assembly (UN-GA), United Nations Security Council (UN-SC), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and Regional Forum Euroepan Union (EU). They will discuss a certain problems regarding to the topic of their committee and respond to the problem according to the stance and views of the country which they represent.

Regardless from what major we are, we believe that diplomacy is for everyone. It has been proven from one of ISAFIS programs so called ISAFIS Diplomatic Simulation (IMATION). IMATION is an opportunity and practice arenas for ISAFIS member in enhancing and contending diplomatic skill like the way diplomat do for instance in United Nations (UN), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international institutions. In IMATION, we argue, critique, vote, draft, and ultimately we create resolution. By doing those practices particularly among ISAFIS member, we make some efforts to make us a step ahead by upgrading our skills comparing to others.

Practice makes perfect, that is why we provide all ISAFIS members the best way to prepare before joining many events in international level for instance Model of United Nations (MUN) and other international conferences. MUN is happening now, and we should realize the contagion effect included Indonesia by reflecting with the eagerness of students that would like to join those prestigious event.

On April 2010, we proudly present our first successful IMATION that increase the optimism of ISAFIS members to compete in many international events. Our focus is no longer only to join the conference but to prepare ourselves to be the best. By quoting a word, we believe that the will to win is important but the will to prepare is vital. Here in ISAFIS, we challenge you to become our members and join with us in IMATION.